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LGT Navigator: Trump cements conservative majority in the Supreme Court

October 27, 2020

Just one week before the US presidential election, US President Trump cemented the conservative majority in one of the most important US institutions with the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Moreover, Trump once again clearly indicated that he would probably not accept an election defeat. Meanwhile, renewed lockdowns due to the continued sharp rise in the number of Covid-19 cases in Europe and the US, and the increasing nervousness ahead of the US elections are causing continuing uncertainty on capital markets. In addition, hopes of the long-anticipated US corona rescue package are dwindling more and more.

Trump cements conservative majority in Supreme Court

Just one week before the US presidential election, the conservative majority in the country's Supreme Court is being consolidated with the election of Judge Amy Coney Barrett (48). US President Donald Trump's preferred candidate passed the Senate with a Republican majority of 52 votes. For the first time in history, not a single member of the opposition party voted for the candidate. Barrett will thus succeed the liberal judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died in September. The judges are be appointed for life, and the conservative majority in the Supreme Court could now finally have the “last word“ in an “unclear“ election outcome on November 3.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump reiterated that he would hardly accept an ambiguous outcome on November 3. According to Trump, there are “major problems and discrepancies“ in the postal vote throughout the US. In several Swing States it is quite possible that the election on November 3 has not yet been decided and postal votes will have to be counted days later.

The Dow Jones Industrial slumped by -2.29% at the start of the week, falling below the 28 000 mark to 27 685.38 points. The broad-based S&P 500 fell by -1.86% to 3 400.97 points. No trend was discernible on the Asian stock markets. Futures point to a moderately positive opening on European stock exchanges, following the heavy losses yesterday (EuroStoxx -2.93% and Dax -3.71%, shares of SAP slumped more than -20%).

Ifo business climate deteriorates amid second pandemic wave

The highly regarded Ifo business climate index fell to 92.7 in October, from 93.2 points in the previous month. As a result, the mood of the around 8 000 companies surveyed clouded over for the first time in five months. In view of rising infection figures, the concerns regarding the development of the German economy are increasing, commented the Munich-based economic research institute. In the current survey, the companies were more skeptical about their outlook for the coming months than they were a month ago.

Japan sets itself the goal of becoming climate-neutral by 2050

The new Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga, reaffirmed his goal of making the world's third largest economy climate-neutral by 2050, without restricting economic growth. According to Suga, a corresponding expansion of renewable energies, carbon recycling or digitalization could give a strong boost to the domestic economy. Japan is currently the world's fifth largest emitter of CO2 and under the previous government of Shinzo Abe had not committed itself to a specific date. With the goal now set, Japan is following the example of the European Union.

 

 

Economic Indicators October 27

MEZ Country Indicator Last
13:30 US Durable Goods Orders (September, m/m) +0.5%
14:00 US S&P House Prices 20 biggest Cities (September, y/y) +3.9%

Earnings Calendar October 27

Country Corporate Period
SZ Novartis Q3
UK HSBC Q3
UK BP Q3
US Merck & Co Q3
US 3M Q3
US Aflac Q3

 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi, +41 44 250 78 59, E-Mail: lgt.navigator@lgt.com
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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